A futures-based Bitcoin ETF has a 75 percent chance of approval this October, according to a Bloomberg analyst.
The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the US regulatory authority SEC is becoming more and more likely – at least in the futures-based version. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, there is even a 75 percent chance of such a futures-based ETF being approved this month. This optimistic outlook may come as a surprise. At the beginning of the month, the SEC initially caused frustration among crypto fans. Because the decision on the approval of Bitcoin ETFs was – as several times before – postponed. In plain language this means that no decision will be made before November, neither positive nor negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs are enjoying great popularity in neighboring Canada .
Yes, the SEC has stopped the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, but only for the physically backed ETFs under the 33 Act. The futures ETFs filed under the ’40 Act that Gary Gensler (“Genz”), [SEC chief] loves, are very much alive and probably on schedule (we think there’s a 75 percent chance that the SEC approved them in October)
said Balchunas on Twitter . “Genz” is the nickname for Gary Gensler, the head of the SEC. A good month ago, he already indicated that Bitcoin ETFs would have a better chance of approval if they were based on Bitcoin futures. Gensler recently repeated this assessment at the Future of Asset Management North America Conference .
In conjunction with the other federal securities laws, the ’40 Act provides significant investor protection for mutual funds and ETFs. I look forward to staff reviewing such requests
Gensler announced at the conference .
Will Gary Gensler approve a Bitcoin Future ETF?
But after these words is an approval as good as it is under one roof? Or isn’t the exultation of the balchunas a little premature after all? After all, the history of Bitcoin ETFs in the USA has been going on for several years. Meanwhile, she has seen several moments when proponents were almost certain that the SEC would give her approval. Sharp price rises were usually the result of such fantasies, but over time there was a certain wear and tear here. Bitcoin futures themselves were officially approved in December 2017. At that time, the Bitcoin course hadhit a new all-time high of $ 20,000. Several mutual funds were launched earlier this year that invested in bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
BTC Tries To Retest $ 50,000 As Downside Risk Rises
- The price of bitcoin exited the descending wedge pattern on October 1 and rose 10%.
- Despite the initial optimism, BTC is struggling to meet its target of $ 49,746.
- A retracement to $ 44,893 is likely before the big crypto establishes a directional bias.
The price of Bitcoin was consolidating as it tended to decline from the September 6 high. Interestingly, this decline resulted in the formation of a bullish pattern that erupted on October 1. The resulting rally pushed BTC through air barriers. However, the momentum needs to cross another level for a continuation of this uptrend.
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The price of Bitcoin struggles to find a bias
The price of Bitcoin has established two separate lower highs and three lower lows since August 26. Connecting these oscillation points using trend lines reveals the formation of a falling wedge.
This setup predicts a 12% rally to $ 49,746, obtained by measuring the distance from the first swing high to the swing low and adding it to the break point at $ 43,719.
On October 1, the price of Bitcoin reduced the upper trendline of the descending corner and sliced at $ 44,893 and is currently hovering inside the supply zone ranging from $ 47,316 to $ 48,834.
While an ideal local high would be to retest $ 50,000 and collect cash above the September 18 high of $ 48,834, the price of Bitcoin may reverse prematurely from its current position.
Either way, a retracement towards the stable support floor of $ 44,893. Here, buyers can make another comeback but this time target the $ 50,000 and $ 53,000 barriers.
12 hour BTC / USD chart
While a pullback to $ 44,893 looks likely, a failure to hold above will signal weakness for buyers. In such a case, the price of Bitcoin could drop and retest $ 42,900.
A decisive 12 hour candlestick near this demand barrier will cancel out gains and potentially invalidate the bullish thesis.
Such a development will bring BTC back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $ 41,126.